Guest Commentary: Özgür Çelik
The article „An Urgent Need to Contain Turkey,“ written by Bradley Martin and published in the Wall Street Journal on March 4, 2026, appears at first glance to be a commentary on Middle Eastern power dynamics. However, it formulates a far more reaching strategic recommendation. The text argues that any power vacuum created by a potential weakening of Iranian influence in the region must not be filled by Turkey.
According to the author, the U.S. and Israel should already incorporate this possibility into their strategic planning. The central message is clear: following Iran, Turkey could emerge as the next rising actor in the Middle East—a prospect that Western strategic circles must monitor closely.
The Wall Street Journal’s Strategic Recommendation
Upon closer inspection of the language used, it becomes apparent that the criticism directed at Turkey targets a much broader framework than individual political decisions. The article relies on several lines of argument: Turkey is portrayed as a difficult NATO partner, pursuing a Middle East policy independent of the Western line, failing to align fully with Washington regarding Iran, and utilizing regional crises for its own strategic advantage.
Turkey as a NATO Partner Under Scrutiny
In this context, Turkey is depicted not merely as a criticized ally, but as a power that—if necessary—must be limited or „contained.“ It is particularly striking that Turkey is openly described for the first time as an „actor that must be kept in balance.“ The term „contain“ is by no means an ordinary expression in international politics.
The Concept of „Containment“: A Historical Turning Point
Historically, it represents a strategic approach used by great powers to balance rising or independently acting states through political, military, or economic means. The use of this term in relation to Turkey suggests that certain Western circles no longer view Ankara solely as an ally, but simultaneously as a potential rival power center.
Focus on State Capacity Rather Than Specific Policies
Another notable aspect of the text is that the discussion does not focus on a specific government or individual political leaders, but on overall state capacity. The article does not limit itself to criticizing specific Turkish decisions.
Instead, military strength, geographic location, and regional influence potential are analyzed collectively to discuss the future geopolitical role this potential might play. This approach reflects a classic reflex in international politics: states that could gain significant influence are analyzed early, and strategies are devised to maintain a balance of power.
Power Dynamics in the International System
Such texts often trigger emotional reactions. However, it is more important to understand what they actually convey. In the international system, states are judged neither on the basis of permanent friendships nor permanent enmities.
The perception of states is primarily shaped by power relations. When a country becomes an influential actor in its region, it is not uncommon for other power centers to consider how that influence might be limited or balanced.
Perceived Potential as a Trigger for Western Concern
In this sense, the article is more than just a collection of criticisms against Turkey; it serves as a warning regarding future shifts in power within the Middle East. While a potential decline in Iranian influence is discussed, Turkey already appears in the text as the next defining actor. This can be read as an indicator of how the perception of Turkey is shifting within the international system.
Demands for the „containment“ of a state usually arise from the assessment that its influence is poised to grow. Therefore, the views formulated in the article should be understood not just as polemical debate, but as a document of how Turkey’s role is perceived in global politics.
THIS MIGHT ALSO INTEREST YOU
– World –
The Economist: Erdogan most popular politician in the Muslim world
Analysis from The Economist and Arab Barometer confirms President Erdogan is the leading voice for the world’s 2 billion Muslims, a journey that began with his 2009 Davos protest.
The Economist: Erdogan most popular politician in the Muslim world
